So the latest T-Bills auction results are out!
And interest rates are going up again.
Cut off yield is 3.98% (vs 3.93% the previous auction).
In my weekend article I estimated a range of 3.85% – 4.00%, so this is on the higher side on the range (which is good news).
Interest Rates for T-Bills are on an uptrend
You can see the trend for the 6 month T-Bills interest rates over the past 6 months:
Interest rates peaked at 4.4% on 8 December 2022.
Before declining as low as 3.88% on 2 February 2023.
Since the 2 February 2023 auction though, interest rates have started to pick up, closing at 3.98% for the latest T-Bills auction.
This is despite T-Bills application amounts picking up
Interestingly, this pick up in interest rates is despite an increase in the T-Bills application amounts.
Application amounts increased from from $11 billion the previous auction to $13 billion this auction.
That’s a pretty hefty 18% increase in application amounts, and yet interest rates still went up!
Bidders are becoming more savvy?
Looking more closely at the numbers, it seems like bidders are becoming more “savvy”, and putting in higher bids.
Median yield has gone up a whole lot to 3.88%, while average yield is on the high side at 3.58%.
This is quite a bit higher than the recent auctions:
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Allotment Statistics for T-Bills
Non-competitive applications see 100% allotment again.
Practically speaking:
Anyone who applied non-competitive would get 100% allotment at 3.98%.
Anyone who applied competitive below 3.98% would get 100% allotment.
Anyone who applied competitive at 3.98% or above would get 0% allotment.
That said I still recommend putting in a competitive bid though, just to protect yourself against a freak result.
T-Bills a better buy than Fixed Deposit soon?
For comparison, after the February promotions most of the banks revised their fixed deposit rates down sharply.
As of today, the best Fixed Deposit is 4.00% with HSBC for 7 months.
With a minimum of $30,000.
Given that T-Bills interest rates are starting to pick up again, I think you may well see T-Bills with higher interest rates than Fixed Deposits very soon.
What did I do – did I subscribe for the T-Bills?
Most of my spare cash is tied up in a mix of fixed deposit, T-Bills and Singapore Savings Bonds.
I actually bought this latest round of T-Bills using CPF-OA funds online (my CPFIS account is with DBS).
I applied competitive using 3.85% (the low end of my estimated range) – because frankly when you’re using CPF-OA anything above 3.00% is a good deal already.
Pretty pleased with the result in any case – 3.98% is a good yield compared to CPF-OA’s 2.5%.
Didn’t even have to queue at the bank too!
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Hi FH,
Do you have any info on what is the exact date of cpf deduction and also lead time needed to credit back into cpfis? Need to plan to minimize the additional month of wasted interest.
Take example for the next Tbill issue:
Auction Date – 16th Mar 2023
Issue Date – 21st Mar 2023
Maturity Date – 19th Sep 2023
When will the money appear back in CPFIS when it mature? On 19th? 20th? 21st? Or even later?
When transfering from CPFIS to CPA-OA, how long will it take? Instant? 3 working days?
Actually also need to know the exact date it will deduct the money from OA. The following issue after that, Auction on 30th March, Issue on 4th April. So will the money be deduct 30th? 31st? Or 4th Apr?
Seems like not worth risking losing March interests…
I wish there is more clarity on this part
I believe for DBS they deduct 1 day after the Issue Date.
But in any case, you should assume that they will deduct the funds from CPF-OA on the issue date.
It goes back into CPFIS on the day of maturity (6pm I believe). But if you want to transfer from CPFIS back to CPF-OA it will take a few working days, depending on whether you do it online or at the bank (online is fastest, 3 working days).
Thanks a lot for the reply!
To summarize:
– Money will be deducted on Issue Date + 1
– Money will be credited on Maturity Date (6pm)
– CPFIS to OA will take 3 working days (apply online)
That will be extremely helpful with certain t-bills (like the one auctioning on 30th march and issue on 4th april – I really don’t want to lose March interests).
That said, I understand the exact dates can differ between agent banks. I am using OCBC – am going to monitor when exactly they deduct the money.
Yes, pretty much as you summarised! But do confirm with the bank as well, the above looks correct for DBS which I am using, but it may differ for other banks (or they may change practices).
Hi FH,
Just curious, for your CPF-OA T-bill application, did you use the bulk of your OA? Or are you subscribing to the laddering method and applying small amounts each month? Lastly, are there charges when you use OA for the T-bills?
Thank you!
No I am using lump sum, but I set aside enough to pay my mortgage for the next 7 – 8 months (while maintaining the minimum 20k).
Yes, there are application fees involved, about $2+ per application if you are successful.