Top Reads this Week (14 October)

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1. Guide to the Markets (JP Morgan Asset Management)

There’s a ton of really great charts in this latest report by JP Morgan. Presented without commentary, it really shows how you can spin the data to fit any narrative you want.

2. Why the Best Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns is Useless (Of Dollars and Data)

I think the author got it spot on with this one. The best trading models in the world fail because of the human element. It’s incredibly hard to trust that your model works when it results in you underperforming for more than 5 years at a time, when you have to sit idly and watch your friends who bought stocks make crazy returns.

3. Wednesday’s Early Stock Rout: The Correlation Flip Cometh (The Heisenberg)

Probably the most accurate (to me at least) take on the global stock market rout that I’ve read so far.

4. Property Prices Continue to Surge in China Despite Cooling Measures – Here’s Why (Forbes)

5. Country Garden Shares slump to 14-month low after angry homebuyers storm sales centre to protest price cuts (South China Morning Post)

Shared by a reader:

Interesting article by an NUS lecturer a few months back. The macros drivers he pointed out ( 3rd point on socio-cultural factor was quite interesting) may help to explain why many people think the Chinese residential property market remain resilient despite rounds of cooling measures over the years. Furthermore, with the current China-US trade, the focus on domestic consumption to support its faltering economic growth has become even more important now. I would think residential property falls into the domestic consumption category too and the market could be poised for a reversal from its earlier cooling policies with easing monetary policies? For spore listed property company with big exposure to china residential, i saw Yanlord’s share price plunge from 1.90 a year ago to 1.34 today. Even Capitaland only manged to sell about 1,700 units 1h2018 vs 5,300 units 1h2017.

This week there is a news on Country Garden, one of the largest residential property developer in China ( these are the same guys who are building the mega project Forest City across in Johor) See the following post below which describe the state of market there today.

i doubt it will happen in Singapore. I mean the part about throwing rocks at the sales office. Cant imagine it happening here at the show room….right?

6. The “Buck An Hour” Rule (Budgets are Sexy)

I usually don’t post on managing expenses, but I quite enjoyed these tests:

The “Stranger” Test — When you’re about to purchase something, imagine a stranger holding the item in one hand, and the cash equivalent in the other. Which one would you choose?

The “Urgency” Test — Whenever you’re debating on picking up a new shirt/shoes/etc, ask yourself: “Would I wear this out of the dressing room right now if I could?” If the answer is yes, buy it if the price is right, but if youhesitate – put it down and run! This also works for buying books (would you want to stop and read this right this second?), buying art (would you swap this painting for another on your wall as soon as you got home?) or even choosing dates (would you rush to show him/her off to all your friends the second you had the chance? )

The Decluttering Test — This one’s more for deciding on whether to get rid of something vs buying it, but it’s still a pretty good one: whenever you’re deciding if you should keep something around or not, ask yourself if you’d go out and *buy it all over again* if you didn’t already own it right now. If the answer is yes, keep it around! If it’s a hard no, it’s time to finally let it go.


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