Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll probably have heard that Silver’s price performance has been astounding.
Silver’s price was at $30 USD/ounce as of early 2025.
As of this week, Silver closed as high as $90 USD/ounce.
That’s an unbelievable 200% return in the span of one year.
I passed by Silver Bullion in Millenia walk recently, and there was a literal queue of people to get in.
Which if you know anything about precious metals, suggests that we are probably closer to the tail end of the cycle, than the early stage.
I’ve noticed A LOT of discussion from retail investors looking to buy Silver.
So I wanted to tackle the question head on.
After Silver’s price has tripled over the past year… will I still buy more silver today?
Table of Contents
Silver’s price has tripled over the past year
Silver’s price was at $30 USD/ounce as of early 2025.
As of this week, Silver closed as high as $90 USD/ounce.
That’s an unbelievable 200% return in the span of one year.
If you thought gold’s 60% return last year was good – Silver makes that look like peanuts.
Compared to Gold, Bitcoin, S&P500, and STI below.
Had you bought Silver and took the year off, you would pretty much have performed just about every other asset class.
Which is unbelievable stuff.
| Asset Class | Price (Jan 15, 2025)* | Price (Jan 15, 2026)* | 1-Year Return |
| Silver | ~$29.85 USD | ~$90.00 USD | +201.5% |
| Gold | ~$2,675 USD | ~$4,603 USD | +72.1% |
| STI (Straits Times Index) | ~3,772 SGD | 4,812 SGD | +27.6% |
| S&P 500 | ~5,949 USD | 6,930 USD | +16.7% |
| Bitcoin | ~$99,618 USD | ~$97,666 USD | -2.0% |
Why does Silver’s price keep going up?
So… why does Silver’s price keep going up?
The textbook answer, per Gemini:
- Supply Shock (China Export Curbs): Effective January 1, 2026, China implemented strict export licensing/restrictions on silver to protect its domestic surplus for solar and EV industries. This effectively fragmented the global market, trapping supply in the East and starving Western hubs (London/COMEX) where inventories are already at multi-decade lows.
- Industrial Supercycle (AI & Green Tech): Industrial demand is no longer just about solar panels (PV). The explosive build-out of AI data centers and high-performance semiconductors has added a new, price-insensitive layer of demand for silver’s conductive properties. This coincides with record consumption from EVs and 5G infrastructure.
- Structural Deficit & Inventory Squeeze: The market is in its fifth consecutive year of deficit (demand > mine supply). Mine production is stagnant (most silver is a byproduct of base metal mining and cannot scale quickly). Bullion banks and commercial shorts have been forced to cover positions as physical premiums in Shanghai decoupled from paper prices in the West.
- Macro & Monetary Policy: Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026 (following cooling US labor data) and a softening USD have lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Silver is leveraging gold’s concurrent run to record highs but with higher beta (volatility).
Speculative fervor – Is Silver in a bubble?
But c’mon.
This horse is old enough to know that an asset class does not triple in 12 months unless there is some level of speculative mania.
In other words, yes Silver originally started going up because of the reasons above.
But after a certain point, silver price started going up because people are buying on the expectations that price continues to go up.
Which then resulted in the parabolic move below.
Short Term price outlook for Silver?
If you absolutely made me answer.
Yes I am going to say that I think Silver is in a bubble today.
If you are a long term investor, and you truly are bullish on silver, I *think* you will likely be able to buy silver at a cheaper price in the next 1 – 2 years.
But of course, most of the people buying silver today are not long term investors.
They are short term flippers, looking to buy and hopefully sell in 1 – 2 months for a higher price.
For these traders, what is the short term price outlook for silver?
Price outlook for Silver in Q1 2026?
I think in a bull case, the continued squeeze on physical deliverable silver could push prices toward $100/oz.
With the “fear of missing out” (FOMO) from retail, and institutional capital is actively chasing the trend, who knows silver could go even higher.
But it’s fairly clear there are signs of risk too.
The CME Group raised margin requirements significantly in early January to curb volatility, which often signals a forced deleveraging/correction is imminent.
And long-term, prices above $80 incentivize manufacturers (e.g., solar producers who use silver) to aggressively thrift or substitute silver with copper.
So the higher that silver prices go in the short term, the more brutal the collapse on the other side.
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Risk reward of Silver today?
If you ask me, Silver today is a trader’s market rather than a long-term entry for conservative capital.
I asked Gemini to do a detailed analysis of the risk-reward.
This was the answer:
Executive Summary: Avoid / Sell At a spot price of ~$88/oz (Jan 14, 2026), Silver offers a negative asymmetric risk-reward. You are effectively buying into the peak of a liquidity squeeze driven by the China export ban and speculative FOMO. While short-term momentum could spike prices to $100+, the 3-year outlook favors a reversion to the mean as industrial substitution accelerates and the 2-year export restrictions (expiring 2028) eventually normalize supply. The statistical probability favors a drawdown of ~20–40% over your holding period.
3-Year Risk-Reward Analysis (Jan 2026 – Jan 2029)
Current Spot Price: ~$88.00 / oz
Investment Verdict: Bad Buy (High Risk of Capital Loss)
| Scenario | Probability | Price Target (Jan 2029) | Upside / Downside | Reasoning |
| Bull Case (Supercycle) | 20% | $125.00 | +42% | Structural deficit widens; “China Ban” is extended beyond 2028; global fiat debasement accelerates ($100 becomes new floor). |
| Base Case (Normalization) | 50% | $65.00 | -26% | Market adapts to export curbs via supply chains outside China; high prices force solar manufacturers to thrift/substitute; speculative premium evaporates. |
| Bear Case (Bust) | 30% | $45.00 | -49% | China export ban expires (Jan 2028), flooding market with pent-up inventory; global recession cuts industrial demand; margins compress to historical means. |
1. The “Squeeze” Premium is Temporary (Base Case) The current price of ~$88 reflects a “scarcity premium” due to the January 1, 2026, China export restrictions (effective for two years).
- The Trap: Your 3-year holding period (ending Jan 2029) extends beyond the expiration of these curbs (Jan 2028).
- Supply Response: Historically, silver spikes above $50 trigger massive supply mobilization—not just from miners, but from scrap/recycling (silverware melt) which becomes highly profitable at these levels.
- Substitution Risk: At >$80/oz, the solar industry (PV) faces an existential crisis. Manufacturers like LONGi and Jinko Solar will aggressively pivot to copper-plated interconnects, permanently destroying ~15% of silver’s annual industrial demand profile by 2028.
2. Valuation vs. Production Cost (Bear Case)
- Marginal Cost: The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for primary silver miners is ~$20–$25/oz.
- The Gap: Trading at ~$88 implies a 300%+ margin for producers. In commodities, price eventually gravitates towards the marginal cost of production plus a reasonable premium. The current disconnect is unsustainable over a 3-year horizon.
- Inventory Overhang: Once the “fear” trade subsides, the ~800Moz of above-ground bullion (mostly in private vaults) acts as a massive dampener on prices sustaining triple digits.
3. Technical “Blow-Off Top” (Sentiment)
- RSI Levels: Monthly RSI is deeply overbought (>80). Historically, silver rallies are violent and end abruptly (e.g., 1980, 2011).
- Retail Sentiment: The current rally is fueled by retail FOMO and “short squeeze” narratives. Smart money (commercial hedgers) typically use these spikes to lock in forward production prices, effectively capping long-term upside.
And sure you may disagree with the exact numbers in the bull and bear case.
But big picture?
I agree.
I think at these prices, risk-reward is heavily tilted to the downside for long term capital.
Sure silver can continue going up in the next few months (or even quarters).
But this probably ends poorly at some point.
Will I buy more Silver today?
For the record – I own gold, I own Bitcoin, I own stocks and REITs (see my full portfolio on FH Premium).
But I don’t own silver.
Do I wish I had loaded up on silver in early 2025?
Absolutely.
But at the same time, I also wish I had poured my lifesavings into Bitcoin when I first heard about it in 2013.
But I didn’t do any of that, and so as an investor I need to see things the way they are today.
And when I look at the chart of silver below.
And I think about all the queues to get into Silver Bullion at Millenia walk.
And I think about all the retail investors asking about silver and whether it is a good buy.
My instincts just kick in and tell me if I had a position in silver, this is the kind of sentiment I should be selling into – and very much the opposite of buying.
So yes while I regret not buying Silver in 2025.
This really is not the kind of chart I want to chase.
As the saying in investing goes.
The world is big enough that I don’t need to get into every investment.
I just need to find the 20 – 30 investments that make sense for me, and I invest accordingly.
If silver doesn’t fit the bill, I just skip it, no hard feelings, and no FOMO.
But I would love to hear what you think though!
Do you think I am wrong on silver? Would you buy more silver at current prices?
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Your analysis is superficial and incorrect. Silver is achieving true price discovery after decades of price manipulation. Do a more in depth look and forget your biases.
Able to expand more on the thought process? Would like to hear your thought process on why silver is going through price discovery now.
The bug is correct, FH. I am 95% in pm and of that 85% in Ag . You could listen to Alasdair Macleod, Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Ed Steers and many more – best man would possibly be David Jensen (Substack) or Andrew Macuire(Kinesis – incorrect spelling). The first to tell me was late Ted Butler in 2009. I bought Ag all the time.
Are we in a bubble? Yes! The fiats are overvalued. There is a credit bubble. The so called (after Grant Williams) Everything bubble.
Your question is a thing I know about for 17 years. Did I believe it? With doubts. But Ag was cheap on (or a little above) mining costs – so risk was 2USD over a decade.
I remember a video by Mike Maloney on yt: “The case for 20.000 USD gold” – this was my last wakeupkiss. The first was a great text by Kurt Kasun: “Not your Grandfather’s depression”
I think we will correct soon, hefty and quickly – say 20%-30%? And then up again.
To answer your question: Silver is money. I am an old fart and remember coins in my hand. Alasdair says all the time “It is not gold rising, but fiat falling” or “China is not buying gold, but selling USD”.
Rick Rule and Clem Chambers sold I think – I do not sell nor buy.
And I agree – Ag rose too quickly – my last buy was at 50 USD/o – I think the USD will fall more, so Ag should outperform. Too much debt and unfunded liabilities.
As the pm were pricecontrolled – now in a more free market, all metals are looking for the correct price.
Late here, must go – Good night!
Hi FH,
https://sgwealthbuilder.com/2026/01/09/sillver-price-in-super-bull-mood/
Two major factors led to the chaotic surge of silver prices in late 2025. Firstly, silver always move in tandem with gold, which was given a massive boost due to Donald Trump’s aggressive foreign affairs policy. The geopolitical tensions led to investors seeking safe haven, causing gold prices to spike and led to the current tailwinds for silver.
Another factor for silver rally is market speculation that US may levy tariffs on silver soon, causing traders to load up on the precious metals. The “Fear Of Missing Out” caused traders to squeeze silver. Given that silver has a thin market and also declining global silver mine output, I believe 2026 could see silver prices in bullish mood. Till then, enjoy the ride.
https://sgwealthbuilder.com/2026/01/09/sillver-price-in-super-bull-mood/
Humble suggestion to look further in thesis as there has been big fundamental/ structural shifts – Monetary aspect, industrial demand, geopolitical. 3 major points below, for a differing viewpoint.
1. Inevitable Fiat and debt debasement
(persistent debt deficit, govs rely on central banks to monetise ever increasing debt)
It’s not about gold and silver going up, but about paper money losing purchasing power. Look at long term yields of major countries or the increasing desperation and actions of certain countries. Look at all assets going up.
2. Geopolitical shifts and dynamics of increasing multi polar world
Resources, energy, commodities are now fundamentally strategic and critical > Countries hoarding metals and rare earths, tariffs, trade restrictions vs silver demand which is now a critical commodity for AI and data centres, EVs, solar, military and wars, beside use in monetary.
3. Suppressed prices and paper market manipulation
Physical demand vs paper supply massively imbalanced due to above (esp silver).
Physical delivery unwinding decades of paper futures market and distortion of price discovery. Suppression cannot persist indefinitely.
*Technicals
Do consider commodity cycles usually being decades long cycles. Note the cup and handle pattern being a 40-year accumulation, case in point. However, as with all markets there will be local tops, corrections and years for this to play out.
SILVER enter a Super Bull Cycle, a long run way, may be beyond 20301
Hi FH,
https://sgwealthbuilder.com/2026/01/21/spdr-gold-shares-etf/
According to a Straits Times article dated 16 January 2026, there was a net inflow of $2.4 billion to SGX-listed ETFs. Among the ETFs, SPDR Gold Shares ETF enjoyed a spectacular return of 57% as investors’ interest in gold surged following escalating geopolitical tensions.
As I am looking to diversify my SRS portfolio with different asset classes, SPDR Gold Shares ETF is an interesting value proposition. Currently, 60% of my SRS portfolio comprises of Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) and 35% in equities. I am thinking of allocating the remaining 5% of my SRS funds in gold.
https://sgwealthbuilder.com/2026/01/21/spdr-gold-shares-etf/