Okay I actually wasn’t planning on writing this article.
But when I looked at the latest T-Bills auction results.
With cut-off yields dropping from 3.85% to 3.75%.
And application amounts rebounding strongly from $9.5 billion to $12.3 billion.
It occurred to me that this was exactly what you guys predicted:
That the previous T-Bills auction was undersubscribed because the timing was very inconvenient for CPF-OA buyers (would lose both March and April CPF-OA interest).
And that this would be solved in the next auction.
Whether or not this is the correct interpretation remains to be seen, but the data for now does seem to back up this theory.
Just check out the big rebound in T-Bills application amounts below:
6 month T-Bills yields sink to 3.75% (13 April 2023 Auction Results)
Auction results are set out below.
Cut off yield is 3.75%.
Down from 3.85% the previous auction.
T-Bills Application Amounts rebound strongly
As set out above – T-Bills application amounts rebound very strongly.
From $9.5 billion the previous auction.
To $12.3 billion this auction.
That’s a whopping 28% increase in application amounts – and brings it very close to results from the previous few auctions.
Downtrend in T-Bills yields is continuing
With this result – the downtrend in T-Bills yields seems very much intact.
You can see this very clearly below.
T-Bills yields peaked in December 2022.
And it has been on a downtrend ever since.
Is the recovery in application amounts due to CPF-OA buyers?
So the problem with the previous T-Bills auction was that the auction date was 30 March 2023.
And if you buy T-Bills with CPF-OA funds, the moneys are deducted from your CPF-OA account 1 day after the auction date.
This means the CPF-OA funds would be deducted on 31 March 2023.
Which means that you would lose the entire month of March CPF-OA interest, even though you only used the CPF funds for 1 day.
Many of you guys suggested that this was the reason why the application amounts for the previous round of T-Bills auction was so low.
And that this would be “solved” in the next auction.
For the record – we won’t know exactly whether this was the reason why, because MAS doesn’t break down how much is applied using CPF-OA vs cash.
But you can see that indeed the application amounts did rebound very strongly from the previous auction, so perhaps this theory is indeed true after all!
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