As you guys would know, I own both Gold and Bitcoin in my portfolio
Gold is about x% of my portfolio today.
While Bitcoin (including Ethereum and Solana) sits at about x% of my portfolio too – which means that on a risk adjusted basis I am overweight Bitcoin relative to gold because Bitcoin is a more volatile asset.
That said, the price action of both has been very interesting in 2026, with:
- Gold soaring as high to 5500 at one point before pulling back to 4600
- Bitcoin likewise went as high as 97,000 before dropping to as low as 63,000, but has since recovered to 80,000
So I wanted to take a closer look at both gold and Bitcoin, and discuss whether this is an opportunity to accumulate for long term investors.
Year to date return of Gold and Bitcoin
As at time of writing, this is the year to date (YTD) performance of both asset classes.
Bitcoin is down -9.8%.
Gold is up 6.7%.
| Asset | Start price used | Latest price used | YTD performance |
| Bitcoin | US$88,731.98 on 1 Jan 2026 | US$80,000 | -9.8% |
| Gold spot | US$4,325.45/oz on 1 Jan 2026 | US$4,615.25/oz | +6.7% |
But frankly, the year to date return masks the roller coaster price action both asset classes have been through in 2026.
Gold went as high as 5500 in Jan 2026 (27% YTD rise) before plunging in the Iran war.
Bitcoin too went as high as 97,000 in Jan 2026 (13% YTD rise) before plunging.
And both Gold and Bitcoin are down 17% from their 2026 top.
While Bitcoin is down even more from its 2025 top (125k).
You can also see charts wise the 2 are fundamentally different.
Gold is up significantly on a 12 month basis – it was 3300 in June 25.
While Bitcoin is down significantly on a 12 month basis – it was 110k in June 25.
This is an FH Premium article that was written on 4 May 2026 and will not be updated going forward.
Some details relating to my portfolio have been blanked out, and the full details are on FH Premium.
What is the difference between Bitcoin and Gold?
Price action over the past few years has made clear the difference between Bitcoin and Gold.
Both Bitcoin and Gold respond well to periods of currency debasement (money printing).
But within that there is a lot of nuance.
Bitcoin functions more as a risk on asset like tech stocks, and responds very strongly to risk taking sentiment. And within that it trades around the Bitcoin halving cycle.
While gold behaves more like a geopolitical hedge, and does well during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
And of course as shared above, Bitcoin is far more volatile than gold.
Crunching the numbers, if you want to hold Bitcoin and Gold in equal risk adjusted proportion for your portfolio, you need to hold $2.50–$3.50 of gold for every $1 of bitcoin – simply because Bitcoin is so much more volatile relative to gold.
My views on Bitcoin vs Gold? Should investors own both?
I may be slightly biased on this because I hold Bitcoin and Gold in equal proportions on this, which means on a risk adjusted basis I overweight Bitcoin – so you already know my views on this.
What I would say, is that for a diversified investor, there is a good argument to be made owning both.
Both do well in period of money printing and currency debasement.
But within that overall regime, Bitcoin does better in a risk on environment, whereas gold does better in geopolitical uncertainty.
So there are diversification benefits to be had in owning both, as there are some situations where Bitcoin will do well whereas gold does not.
And recent price action shows that gold and bitcoin can trade independently of each other.
A couple of key points to note though:
- If you want to equal weight gold and bitcoin on a risk adjusted basis, you should be holding $2.5 – $3.5 of gold for each $1 of Bitcoin
- While there are diversification benefits to owning both – don’t kid yourself on the diversification. If there is a 2008 or COVID style crash, both are going to drop and neither Gold / Bitcoin is a true replacement for cash
Has Bitcoin bottomed?
On that note, I wanted to explore a sub question – has Bitcoin bottomed for this cycle?
I pulled the data from the 4 prior cycles, visualised below:
In every cycle, Bitcoin tends to bottom around 12 – 18 months before the next halving cycle, and it peaks 12 – 18 months after the halving cycle.
The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2028.
By that logic, pure cycle timing would point to a possible final bottom for Bitcoin around Oct–Nov 2026 this cycle.
But I would caveat that with these kind of things, you don’t want to be precise, and you want to focus on the big picture.
So I wouldn’t focus on specific months, but rather focus on the year.
So assuming the prior cycles hold, this would suggest that:
- Bitcoin will bottom some time in 2026 (give or take)
- Bitcoin will peak some time in 2029 (give or take)
If this is right, buying Bitcoin in 2026 could be interesting play on the entire halving cycle.
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My personal view on Bitcoin?
On a 2 – 3 year timeframe, I think there is a good chance Bitcoin will be higher in that timeframe than it is today.
What I genuinely don’t know, is whether Bitcoin has bottomed for this cycle, or whether it will go lower in 2026.
The charts are pretty constructive because Bitcoin is making a higher high, which makes the 63k bottom look like cycle bottom. Sentiment around Bitcoin / Crypto is also incredibly washed out as all the hot money has rotated into AI.
These are exactly the kind of conditions that create market bottoms.
If indeed Bitcoin has bottomed, then the higher beta play is to buy something like Microstrategy or a Bitcoin miner.
Microstrategy’s peak was 450 in mid 2025, so just a recovery to those levels (which is a 55% increase for Bitcoin) is a 2.5x return for Microstrategy.
But the problem with Bitcoin is that this asset class is highly volatile, and I’ve noticed that the whales like to manipulate price action into key technical levels, before pulling a sudden reversal.
Viewed from that lens, it is possible that there is manipulation to bring in a higher high, perhaps break above the 200 DMA, and then suddenly trigger a massive sell-off.
That’s just how this asset class works, so it’s also very tough to definitively call a bottom here.
And if Bitcoin has not bottomed yet, or if one is not sure on this, then the cleaner play is to just buy spot Bitcoin, and hold through the volatility.
Which is mainly what I’ve been doing for now.
When I get confirmation that Bitcoin is in a new uptrend, I will add to plays like Microstrategy or Bitcoin miners or maybe even Coinbase, but for now my holdings are largely spot Bitcoin.
My personal view on gold?
With Gold on the other hand, the charts are a lot less constructive – and looking just at these charts I would be inclined to say gold has further downside.
That said the advantage of gold is that there is a structural bid from central banks.
Ever since the Ukraine war in 2022, central banks have been shifting from parking their incremental reserves in USD denominated assets, to parking a portion of them in gold.
That’s a lot of structural demand for gold.
Gold has sold off of late partly because Middle Eastern central banks look to be selling gold to make up for the shortfall in oil revenue.
But if and when the Iran war is over, that headwind goes away, and gold’s price action could pick up again.
Like Bitcoin, I hesitate to say that Gold has bottomed (and the chart actually looks worse than Bitcoin).
But just like Bitcoin, for long term investors looking to accumulate long term positions and don’t use leverage, I find current prices interesting.
Why do I overweight Bitcoin on a risk adjusted basis?
And finally, let’s deal with the elephant in the room.
Why do I hold almost as much Bitcoin as I do gold – meaning I am hugely overweighting Bitcoin on a risk adjusted basis?
I’m going to put it out that there for most investors out there, you should NOT be doing this.
Better to equal weight on a risk adjusted basis, and hold $3 of gold for every $1 of Bitcoin.
So why then do I ignore my own advice and overweight Bitcoin?
I think it ultimately goes back to the law of large numbers, and which asset class offers asymmetric risk-reward.
Law of Large numbers + Asymmetric risk-reward
Let’s put it this way.
Gold’s market cap today is about $30 trillion.
The total US stock market is around $60 trillion.
Which means that if Gold doubles from here, it is going to be the size of the US stock market.
Not impossible, but tough.
Whereas Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.6 trillion.
Which means that Bitcoin can double from here, and it won’t even be a meaningful proportion of Gold’s market cap.
Viewed from this basis, I see Bitcoin as offering higher asymmetric risk-reward relative to gold.
If gold is going up 50% from here, Bitcoin probably doubles or more.
But of course the flipside is that if gold drops 20% from here, Bitcoin probably halves.
At x% of my portfolio I can take the loss even if it halves, but I don’t suggest that other investors do the same unless you have a healthy risk appetite.
Love to hear what you think though! Do you own gold and Bitcoin? Are you overweight gold or Bitcoin on a risk adjusted basis?
This is an FH Premium article that was written on 4 May 2026 and will not be updated going forward.
Some details relating to my portfolio have been blanked out, and the full details are on FH Premium.
For my latest macro views, as well as my full stock watch and personal portfolio, please check out FH Premium.