Remember when Gold / Silver were all the rage back in January 2026, and there were queues outside shops to buy bullion?
Well, in hindsight that should have been a big red flag, because since then gold is down almost 30%, and silver is down 52%.
And if you thought gold was bad – it’s absolute carnage for Bitcoin, down >50% from highs.
That said, remember the Buffet quote about buying when there is blood in the streets?
So I wanted to tok talk a closer look at Gold and Bitcoin, to discuss why both have been performing so poorly, and whether it is a good time to buy.
Gold has dropped 30% from highs
Here’s the chart for reference.
Gold peaked at 5600/ounce in Jan 2026.
Remember when I wrote an article on Silver in Jan 2026 when there were queues to buy gold / silver, and I said this was close to the top? And I received a lot of comments saying that I was wrong on silver and this is a structural bull run?
Well in hindsight that should have been a big red flag.
And since then, Gold has fallen 30% to 3980.
Silver has fallen from 120 to 57 – a whopping 52% decline.
The charts are as ugly as it gets.
Clean break through the moving averages, clear downtrend.
Basically – falling knife.
Bitcoin has dropped 51% from highs
Interestingly, Bitcoin peaked in October 2026 – a whole 3 months before gold.
Bitcoin at $60,000 today is down 52% from it’s $126,000 high.
It gets even worse when you look at Microstrategy, the former Bitcoin treasury poster boy.
Down a whopping 80% from highs.
Since we looked at silver above, let’s also look at Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin.
Down a ridiculous 70% from highs.
Why have Gold and Bitcoin prices crashed?
One word – higher interest rates.
If you recall, at the start of the year markets were pricing in 2026 interest rate cuts.
As of today, the market is pricing in interest rate hikes.
Gold and Bitcoin are unique in that they do not pay interest.
So when interest rates go up, the opportunity cost of holding gold and bitcoin goes up – and they underperform, as you see above.
You can also see below how the interest rate hikes have led to a stronger USD.
Again – not good for Gold and Bitcoin, which do well when there is rampant money printing, and the value of the USD is dropping.
When USD is strengthening and interest rates are going up, that’s about the worst possible combination for gold and bitcoin as investors would rather just hold USD government bonds instead.
Based on prior gold cycles, where / when is the bottom?
To work out what happens next, I dug into 50 years of gold price action.
The lesson is simple: gold doesn’t crash often — but when it does, the bust is slow and ugly.
In five decades, there have been only two real gold busts:
- 1980: down ~65–70%, and it took roughly 28 years to reclaim the old high.
- 2011: down ~45% over four grinding years, then several more years climbing back — about 9 years from peak to fresh highs.
The 2020 dip was gentler — around 20% — with gold roaring back to record highs within ~3 years.
Now assume January 2026’s high of $5,500— was the top.
History gives a rough map:
- A 2020-style correction (−22%) implies ~$4,300 — and we’ve already blown past it.
- A 2011-style bear (−45%) takes us to ~$3,000.
- A 1980-style nightmare (−68%) takes us to ~$1,760 — but that needs a genuine 1980-style rate shock, which doesn’t look like today’s setup.
Here’s the uncomfortable part: gold is already trading near $4,000, down 30% from the top.
That means we’ve already cut clean through the entire 2020-style drawdown.
So there’s 2 ways to see it— either (1) the worst is largely behind us, or (2) we’ve slipped into a 2011/1980-style regime where $3,000 (or worse) is on the table.
Two honest caveats. The sample is tiny — only two true busts — so treat this as a guide, not gospel.
And you can argue 2020 barely counts (a once-in-a-century COVID shock), or that today’s drivers differ fundamentally from 1980 and 2011.
Both fair points.
But the takeaway holds: if this looks anywhere like 1980 or 2011 – a full recovery to the old high could take anywhere from 9 to 28 years, and more downside may be in store.
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But is this time truly different?
On that note of this being different from prior cycles.
Normally, gold moves opposite to “real” interest rates (interest rates minus inflation).
That rule held for decades.
Then it broke. Since 2022, real rates have climbed to decade-highs, yet gold tripled to ~US$5,600.
Why? Central banks — after the West froze Russia’s reserves — have been hoarding gold instead of US dollars.
A structural bid for gold regardless of the price, that drove gold prices up despite higher interest rates.
Then in Jan 2026, something broke again.
Since Jan 2026, we’ve gone back to the previous status quo.
The rise of real interest rates again started to hit gold prices.
What changed, and will central banks continue to buy gold going forward?
For what it’s worth, I don’t have any easy answer to this one.
It is genuinely possible that gold today will differ from the 1980 and 2011 cycles.
Based on prior Bitcoin halving cycles, where / when is the bottom?
Now let’s do some further analysis on Bitcoin before I share my views.
Separate from interest rates, Bitcoin has a unique relationship to the halving cycle.
In plain English – Bitcoin halving is when the reward for mining new Bitcoin is cut in half, slowing new supply roughly every four years.
And prior cycles have shown that Bitcoin prices tend to peak and bottom predictably around this halving cycle.
Historically speaking – in each of the three completed cycles Bitcoin bottomed ~25–30 months after the halving.
The current cycle topped at ~$126K on 6 Oct 2025.
Applying this logic means that Bitcoin will bottom around roughly Q4 2026 (~late October 2026).
In terms of the severity of the drawdown, prior cycles tend to drawdown around 80%, although this has become less severe as Bitcoin matured.
If we assume a similar 78% drawdown like in the 2020 cycle, that implies a bottom of Bitcoin around $27,000.
Of course, you would argue that the drawdowns have become less severe as Bitcoin matured as an asset class.
So if we apply conservatively a 60% – 70% drawdown this cycle, that implies a bottom around $40,000 – $50,000.
Still pretty ugly.
| Cycle | Halving | Cycle top | Bear-market bottom | Top → bottom | Peak drawdown |
| 1 | 28 Nov 2012 | ~$1,150 · 30 Nov 2013 | ~$152 · 14 Jan 2015 | ~410 days (13.5 mo) | ≈ −86% |
| 2 | 9 Jul 2016 | ~$19,800 · 17 Dec 2017 | ~$3,122 · 15 Dec 2018 | ~363 days (12.0 mo) | ≈ −84% |
| 3 | 11 May 2020 | ~$69,000 · 10 Nov 2021 | ~$15,479 · 21 Nov 2022 | ~376 days (12.4 mo) | ≈ −78% |
| 4 (current) | 20 Apr 2024 | ~$126,000 · 6 Oct 2025 | ~$60,000 so far · TBD | ongoing | ≈ −53% so far |
What this tells us that if prior cycles are any guide.
More decline for Bitcoin is on the way, but expect a bottom some time towards the second half of 2026.
But just like with gold, this is frankly a very small dataset, with only 3 prior halving cycles.
And you could argue that today’s conditions with Bitcoin ETFs and geopolitical uncertainty is very different, such that prior cycles are not longer accurate.
Fully valid points.
Is it time to buy Gold and Bitcoin again?
Which brings us to the million dollar question.
Is it time to buy Gold and Bitcoin again?
If you ask me, it was fairly obvious that buying gold / silver in Jan 2026, when there were queues outside gold bullion shops – that was a bad idea.
But that’s done and dusted.
Today with gold down 30% in 6 months, my gut feel based on prior cycles, is that it is too early to call a bottom.
Even in the fast 2020 COVID cycle, Gold took almost 3 years to recover to prior highs.
And it just feels too early for a bottom.
Ideally you want to see a period where gold goes sideways for a long time, where investors get so absolutely sick of gold and never want to talk about it again.
Then you can start thinking about a durable bottom.
6 months into the crash, with a chart that looks like a falling knife, it’s way too early to call a bottom in my view.
Bitcoin though is more interesting.
The cycle halving work I did above suggest that Bitcoin could bottom in the second half of 2026.
Which is pretty soon.
But the kicker is that if you rely on prior cycle data, it implies that anywhere from another 40 – 60% drawdown from here is still possible.
Which makes me very nervous about trying to buy Bitcoin here.
And just like with gold – the charts are way too early to call a bottom.
Will I buy more Gold or Bitcoin?
Full disclosure that I hold a physical gold position from pre-COVID days.
So I’ve held it from $1500 to $5500, and then back down to $4000.
For Bitcoin, I also hold a position that was accumulated over a period of time, which I have held from $15,000 to $126,000, then back down to $60,000.
Both without significant profit taking along way.
Personally I treat Gold and Bitcoin more as store of values – a hedge against a decade of geopolitical uncertainty and money printing.
So I have been less active in trading in and out of my gold and bitcoin positions, vs something like stocks or REITs for example.
Will I buy more today?
Frankly – based on the analysis above, my personal view is that both are still falling knives.
Sure maybe this proves to be the bottom, but based on information available to me that is not a call I can make with a high degree of certainty.
And regular readers know that I do not find any need to buy the exact bottom on falling knives.
I much rather prefer for the price action to signal to me when the coast is clear.
Let gold / Bitcoin make a higher high, let it break and hold above the 200 day moving average.
Then I get interested and would really consider buying in size.
Whatever the case, this post is written on 26 June 2026 and will not be updated going forward.
I will share on FH Premium latest updates if I decide to add to my Gold and Bitcoin positions, and you can see my full portfolio including stocks and REITs as well.
Love to hear what you think though! Will you buy gold or Bitcoin today?
This article was written on 26 June 2026. It will not be updated going forward.
My latest macro views, as well as my full stock watch and personal portfolio, are shared on FH Premium.