In my articles last week, I shared that I saw a 50-60% probability that the March 30 price action was the short term bottom in the S&P500.
Well since then the S&P500 has roared to all time highs.
While signals coming out of both Iran and US suggest that they are somewhat serious about trying to find a middle ground deal.
If so – are we going into a new bull market?
And how would I invest $1 million today in light of this?
Iran War is “Over”? Start of a new bull market?
Latest chart of the S&P500 below.
You can see how since the March 30 bottom, the S&P500 has made a V-shaped recovery.
It has recovered above all key moving averages, and has made fresh all time highs.
Last week I shared that I saw a 50-60% probability the S&P500 bottomed on March 30.
With recent developments and price action, I would say it probably sits around 60-70%.
A lot of things can still go wrong of course – Iran and US may unilaterally walk away from the ceasefire and go back into a hot war.
And with 3 carrier strike groups in the Middle East by next week, it could well be that Trump is using diplomacy as a ruse to build up US naval assets in the Middle East (just like they did in Jan/Feb).
But for now at least, the signs are constructive.
How would I invest $1 million today? Buy DBS Bank, REITs, gold, AI stocks?
Assuming the above is correct and the bottom is in.
How would I invest $1 million today for the post-Iran war recovery?
Based on current prices, I came up with the hypothetical asset allocation:
| Asset Class | Allocation |
| Singapore Stocks / REITs | 30% |
| US Stocks | 35% |
| China Stocks | 10% |
| Gold | 10% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 10% |
| Commodities | 5% |
Let’s walk through each.
This is an FH Premium article that I am releasing to all readers, in the hopes that it helps you in your decision making. It will not be updated going forward.
My latest macro views, as well as my full stock watch and personal portfolio, are shared on FH Premium.
Singapore Stocks / REITs
After a monstrous 2025 / 2026 rally in Singapore bank stocks and STI stocks generally.
I no longer find Singapore stocks “cheap”.
Yes no doubt the bank stocks can continue to go up further, but at these prices I find them pretty fully valued.
That said as a Singapore investor I don’t think you can get away from owning some Singapore stocks, and I myself own both OCBC and UOB Bank.
In fact if you have a decent risk appetite, I think the US listed South East Asia plays like Sea Ltd and Grab offer decent risk reward after the huge sell-off.
Do REITs offer good risk reward today?
At the start of the year, I wrote an article sharing that I plan to own less REITs in 2026.
And true to form, I trimmed my REIT exposure in January and February.
But then REITs have had a huge sell-off after the Iran war, and when the facts change – I change my mind.
After the sell-off, I am a lot more keen on REITs today.
That said ultimately these are yield products so don’t expect to double your money on a REIT.
But if you want a steady yield with some capital gains potential, REITs after the sell-off are starting to look attractive again.
US Stocks
AI stocks are absolutely on fire at the moment.
This week there was a story about how a US company selling shoes that is down 99.5% post-IPO.
Decided to sell its entire shoe business and use the money to buy GPUs to pivot to AI.
And the stock soared 580% on the day.
I mean I don’t know exactly how the AI cycle plays out, but signs like this signal to me the market is in euphoria mode for AI.
I myself hold AI exposure via semiconductors and agentic plays, but signs like this make me very cautious.
Personally I’ve been taking profit in AI steadily and trying to rotate into other areas.
But then again AI keeps going up, so maybe there is more to go in this cycle.
Other than AI – what else looks attractive?
About a week or two ago I shared on FH Premium that I find the MAG7 stocks attractively valued.
Most of them have the distribution and the LLM architecture to benefit tremendously from the AI revolution.
Since then, MAG7 has gone on a monstrously rally.
After the rally, valuations are a lot more fully priced definitely.
But I think there is still opportunity here.
Software stocks
Software stocks is another area that has been crushed by AI.
The fear is that companies will stop buying software, and use AI instead.
If you ask me, I think 80% of the thesis is justified.
But as with these kinds of sell-offs, the market throws the baby out with the bathwater.
Which leaves great opportunities to stock pick names that cannot be easily disrupted by AI, or which can benefit from AI to build even stronger businesses.
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade.
If markets are pricing in a depression scenario into software stocks, then hey I like the risk-reward on the flipside – that reality is not going to be as bad as what is priced in.
But no doubt that software is a falling knife at the moment, and you do need a healthy risk appetite and careful stock picking.
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China Stocks
China is another interesting one.
You can see how the Hang Seng Tech index has been absolutely crushed the past year.
Just like with software – when markets price in doom and gloom, I starting liking the risk reward on the flip side.
With China stocks, I think that in the medium term AI will fundamentally revolutionise the space.
And the current brutal price competition across Alibaba, JD, and Meituan will likely bottom out at some point.
But no doubt China tech is a falling knife at the moment.
Gold
There was a point in this cycle when investors were queueing up to buy gold and silver bullion, and physical gold / silver was completely sold out.
That was a complete no brainer that sentiment was getting euphoric.
Since then, gold has sold off from 5500 to 4500 – which is almost a 20% drop.
That would have washed out a lot of speculative sentiment, and gold starts to look attractive again.
The structural reasons to like gold are simple – this is a decade of higher geopolitical risk, and if countries start to doubt the US and the USD, gold is the natural beneficiary.
It looks like a lot of investors were forced to dump gold during the height of the Iran war, and with that out of the way (for now).
I think gold has a place in my portfolio this decade.
Crypto / Bitcoin
Most of the reasons to like gold – apply equally to crypto and Bitcoin.
With the nuance that Crypto is a far more risk-on asset, and responds much more closely to risk sentiment.
That said this also brings diversification benefits, and I see a good case for owning both.
Note that Crypto has significantly higher volatility than Gold, which means that if you own an equal amount of both, you are actually significantly overweighting Bitcoin on a risk adjusted basis.
Personally I’m okay to do that given my risk appetite, but risk adverse investors should significantly reduce allocation to this asset class (or cut it out entirely).
Commodities
And finally we have commodities.
I shared on FH Premium that I like copper with the demand-supply mismatch, and the structural demand from AI.
That said copper has literally gone on a V-shaped recovery and bottomed even before stocks.
So despite my own thesis, I did not get a chance to build a significant position in copper.
And at these prices, I don’t see a need to chase.
Other than copper I also like uranium, but again at these prices I don’t see a need to chase.
With commodities I would own them at the right price, but if Price doesn’t come down I would rather just allocate the cash to the other sectors above instead.
Closing Thoughts
So generally speaking that’s how I see the market today.
I know many investors speak of how they “missed the bottom”.
I find that kind of talk ridiculous.
If you truly believe that we’re starting a new bull market, and stocks are going up another 80% from here – why does it matter that you missed the first 10-20% of the move?
The first 10-20% of the move is the riskiest money to make – you are taking on significant risk that you catch a falling knife.
Better to just let the market play out and increase the probability of a bottom, before deploying in size.
Unless of course you think that this is a bear market rally and that stocks are going down 50% from here, in which case of course the analysis is completely different.
Whatever the case, the above is how I’m thinking of asset allocation today, and where I see value in today’s market.
My full personal portfolio is shared on FH Premium together with weekly updates on what I buy / sell. And you can see the single stocks I am buying on FH Premium.
Love to hear what you think!
This is an FH Premium article that I am releasing to all readers, in the hopes that it helps you in your decision making. It will not be updated going forward.
My latest macro views, as well as my full stock watch and personal portfolio, are shared on FH Premium.