Holy shit what a week.
For those of you following the FTX saga, it’s been an absolute roller coaster.
The only other time it felt this way in recent years – was Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Even March 2020 doesn’t come close.
I plan to do a full article this weekend breaking down my thoughts on FTX and what is likely to come next.
But for now, I know a lot of you are following Singapore T-Bills very closely.
So I wanted to get this piece out quickly to update on the latest T-Bills auction results on 10 November 2022.
Singapore T-Bills massively oversubscribed – 4.00% yield, 49% allotment for non-competitive applications
T-Bills results usually come out around 2 – 3 pm.
Today’s T-Bills results did not come out until after 7pm.
That’s how you know the T-Bills are massively oversubscribed.
And boy… did it not disappoint.
Out of a S$4.5 billion issuance size, the T-Bills auction received applications of over S$14.2 billion.
That’s about 3.17 times oversubscribed.
Cut-off yield is 4.00%.
And non-competitive applications only see 49% allotment.
You can see the full text from MAS below, emphasis mine:
Today’s auction for the 6-month T-bill (BS22122Z) received over 95,000 bids, which is a record high and far exceeds the bids received for the last T-bill auction. The volume of non-competitive bids for today’s auction also exceeded 40% of the overall issuance size, resulting in the allotment of non-competitive bids on a pro-rated basis. The combination of these factors led to increased time required to process the results, resulting in a delay in the publication of results.
The auction run of BS22122Z on 10 November 2022 has been completed. Key auction statistics are set out below.
MAS is working closely with the local banks to process the refunds by tomorrow (11 November 2022). Investors that applied for T-bills using CPF funds will be able to check their allotments after issuance date on 15 November 2022.
We apologise for the inconvenience caused and thank investors for their patience.
*Note: As the total amount of non-competitive bids received exceeded 40% of the overall issuance size, non-competitive bids have been allotted to investors on a pro-rated basis. To ensure that the final allotments are in denominations of S$1,000, adjustments were undertaken by the system on a randomised basis.
Why are T-Bills interest rates going down? 4.19% the previous auction
Quite a few are asking why T-Bills interest rates are going down when interest rates are going up.
After all, the previous 6 month T-Bills auction closed at 4.19%, a fair bit higher than this auction’s 4.00%
The simple answer, is that the cut-off yield for each T-Bills auction is priced by supply-demand.
The system matches the competitive bids up to the issuance size (less the 40% for non-competitive applications).
And the cut-off yield where the competitive bids match up to the issuance size, is the final yield.
The demand for this round of T-Bills was absolutely humongous, which led to lower interest rates.
As shared in the previous article, if you are concerned about the yield on the T-Bills, you can consider putting in a competitive bid for T-Bills to get around this, so you only buy above your desired price.
BTW – we share commentary on Singapore Investments every week, so do join our Telegram Channel (or Telegram Group), Facebook and Instagram to stay up to date!
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When is the next T-Bills issuance?
If you didn’t get enough T-Bills, fret not.
The next auction is coming up on 24 November, so you have another chance to go again!
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Dear FH,
How does this work? “As the total amount of non-competitive bids received exceeded 40% of the overall issuance size, non-competitive bids have been allotted to investors on a pro-rated basis.”
Is the pro rated basis method.
1) Same way the allocated Singapore saving bond when over subscribed?
OR
2) Since the allocation to non competitive bid is 49%, does it means that everyone who apply under non-compeititive bid will be allocated 49% of the amount they applied for?
Thank you
It is the second one. T-Bills are more of an insitutional level product, so they are not allocated the same way as Singapore Savings Bonds (which are allocated to favour retail investors).
Hi
After I have been allocated, where can I check the holdings?
For SSB, we can use the below link. How about T-bills?
https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/ssb/
Thanks.
Quickest way is to check your bank account refund. I got my refunds last night.
Otherwise you can wait for the CDP holdings to update, but that can take a couple of weeks.
Oh so it will get reflected into cdp holding huh. Was wondering why it is still not showing.
Yup this is CDP. But CDP takes a couple of weeks to update, its usually faster to check the refund.
I still don’t get how competitive bids work.
1) if someone bid lower than the cut off yield, will he be allocated any t-bills?
2) The lower the desired yield rate someone bid for, the higher the chances of getting the bills but the competitive bidder will not be allocated 100% in an over subscribed situation. So how are the bills being allocated?
Answers:
1) Yes, full allocation.
2) Yes correct. They are allocated by matching issue size (less the 40% non-competitive) with competitive bids. The cut-off is the final price of the issuance.
If I put in a competitive bid at 3.8% and the result of the Cut-off Yield is 4%, will I receive yield of 3.8% or 4%?
You will receive at 4% yield. Everybody gets at 4% yield regardless of competitive or non-competitive.
Suppose I bid 20K @ 4% I will automatically be allocated 20K?
If I apply non-competitive how much would I get?
If you applied non-competitive you would get 49%, so slightly less than 10k.
If you bid competitive at 4% it would be pro-rated.
If you bid competitive at 3.9% you would get full allocation at 4%.
So if people kiasu and want to get full allocation, they will bid lower than 4%? And if many people bid lower than 4% , then the cut off yield will end up being less than 4%? Am I understanding this correctly?
Correct.
And if I bid higher than cut off yield I don’t get anything, correct? Wow, this is really a balancing act!
Exactly right. 😉
And if I bid higher than cut off yield I don’t get anything, correct? This is like psychology game. Bid higher or lower? Don’t bid? But if don’t bid and cut off yield is 2.5%? Do I want to be stuck with 2.5%?