Holy shit what a week.
For those of you following the FTX saga, it’s been an absolute roller coaster.
The only other time it felt this way in recent years – was Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Even March 2020 doesn’t come close.
I plan to do a full article this weekend breaking down my thoughts on FTX and what is likely to come next.
But for now, I know a lot of you are following Singapore T-Bills very closely.
So I wanted to get this piece out quickly to update on the latest T-Bills auction results on 10 November 2022.
Singapore T-Bills massively oversubscribed – 4.00% yield, 49% allotment for non-competitive applications
T-Bills results usually come out around 2 – 3 pm.
Today’s T-Bills results did not come out until after 7pm.
That’s how you know the T-Bills are massively oversubscribed.
And boy… did it not disappoint.
Out of a S$4.5 billion issuance size, the T-Bills auction received applications of over S$14.2 billion.
That’s about 3.17 times oversubscribed.
Cut-off yield is 4.00%.
And non-competitive applications only see 49% allotment.
You can see the full text from MAS below, emphasis mine:
Today’s auction for the 6-month T-bill (BS22122Z) received over 95,000 bids, which is a record high and far exceeds the bids received for the last T-bill auction. The volume of non-competitive bids for today’s auction also exceeded 40% of the overall issuance size, resulting in the allotment of non-competitive bids on a pro-rated basis. The combination of these factors led to increased time required to process the results, resulting in a delay in the publication of results.
The auction run of BS22122Z on 10 November 2022 has been completed. Key auction statistics are set out below.
MAS is working closely with the local banks to process the refunds by tomorrow (11 November 2022). Investors that applied for T-bills using CPF funds will be able to check their allotments after issuance date on 15 November 2022.
We apologise for the inconvenience caused and thank investors for their patience.
*Note: As the total amount of non-competitive bids received exceeded 40% of the overall issuance size, non-competitive bids have been allotted to investors on a pro-rated basis. To ensure that the final allotments are in denominations of S$1,000, adjustments were undertaken by the system on a randomised basis.
Why are T-Bills interest rates going down? 4.19% the previous auction
Quite a few are asking why T-Bills interest rates are going down when interest rates are going up.
After all, the previous 6 month T-Bills auction closed at 4.19%, a fair bit higher than this auction’s 4.00%
The simple answer, is that the cut-off yield for each T-Bills auction is priced by supply-demand.
The system matches the competitive bids up to the issuance size (less the 40% for non-competitive applications).
And the cut-off yield where the competitive bids match up to the issuance size, is the final yield.
The demand for this round of T-Bills was absolutely humongous, which led to lower interest rates.
As shared in the previous article, if you are concerned about the yield on the T-Bills, you can consider putting in a competitive bid for T-Bills to get around this, so you only buy above your desired price.
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When is the next T-Bills issuance?
If you didn’t get enough T-Bills, fret not.
The next auction is coming up on 24 November, so you have another chance to go again!
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