新加坡商铺/写字楼市场前景 3 大要点—CICT（凯德综合商业信托）2021 年第三季度业务更新报告最新解读
看了凯德综合商业信托 2021年第三季度业务更新报告 - 有所启发！
其报告绝对是新加坡商业地产（包括商铺和写字楼）领域的信息宝库。
今日分享一下心得，希望对您有所帮助。
CICT（凯德综合商业信托）2021 年第三季度业务更新报告中的 3 大要点
我关注的是新加坡商业地产的总体趋势，而非仅仅聚焦于凯德综合商业信托。
我们从商铺业务说起。
新加坡商铺市场
续租租金变动率仍在下跌
商铺的续租租金变动率持续下滑。
对于不甚熟悉地产领域的读者，我需要解释下，续租租金变动率指的是下面两项租金之间的变动率：(1) 续租租金 (2) 已到期租约的租金。
因此，这说明商铺续租租金低于低于之前租约的租金。
有些细节颇为引人注意：
首年租金低于平均租金
这意味着，业主以此吸引租户签订租约。
他们可能第一年会收取较低的租金，然后逐年增加。
这对双方都有利，租户只需付较低的预付租金，有时间稳定业务。
而业主则保证了入住率（避免房产空置）以及未来的上升空间。
我唯一担心的是疫情形势有变。那样的话，租户核心业务还未改善，同时还要负担不断上涨的租金。
郊区续租租金变动率优于市区
郊区商场续租租金只比之前的平均租金低 0.9%。
而市区商场续租租金则较之前的租金低 8%。
不得不说，由于居家办公，郊区商场目前态势比市区商场要好得多。
不过我不希望这会永远持续下去，我们总有一天会回到办公室。
因此，如果留心，可以发现一些交易机会。卖出复苏交易的一些变量，即不做空数据中心房地产投资信托基金 (REIT)，而是做空郊区商场 REIT，做多市区商场 REIT。
租户销售额的复苏远强于客流回暖
租户销售额为 2019 年平均水平的 83%（下降 17%）。
而客流量则是 2019 年平均水平的 59%（下降 41%）。
我觉得这个数据很有意思——这表明消费者的购物效率越来越高。
如果消费者想购物，他们仍会选择商场（因此租户销售额复苏），但不会只为了闲逛而去商场。
至少在我看来是这样的。
你可以说，租户可能已经更好地适应了后疫情时代的消费现状，销售人们真正想买的商品。也存在这种可能性。
部分零售领域遭到重创
部分类别的租户业绩低迷。
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